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The Huge Difference Between Odds and Probability

Odds and probability are two different terms with two different equations.  The difference between the two can be best describe when we study the composition of combinations. 

As a lotto player, you don’t have the power to change the underlying probability and you cannot beat the odds of the Euromillions game.  But you have the power to know all the possible choices and make the right decision based on those choices.

And making the right choice is possible when you know the difference between odds and probability.

What is the difference?

Probability refers to the measurement that an event will likely occur.  And we measure the likelihood by using the formula:

We normally expressed the results of this formula in percentage.

Now, to get the odds, we use this formula instead:

What you get from this formula is a ratio.

So the difference is that the probability is the measurement of chance while the odds are the ratio of success to failure.

In layman’s term, the difference between odds and probability can be described in the following way:

Probability = Chance

Odds = Advantage

That is, you cannot control the probability and you cannot beat the odds, but at least you can choose the best odds and get the best ratio of success to failure.

Let’s consider the combination 2-4-6-8-10. This combination is composed of 5 even numbers with no odd numbers. This combination belongs to the 0-odd-5-even group.

In the Euromillions game, there are 53,130 ways you can combine 5 numbers that are all even numbers and no odd numbers.

Therefore we calculate the odds of a 0-odd-5-even in the following way:

Odds of 5-even-0-odd = 53,130 / 2,065,630

This means that 2-4-6-8-10 and all similar combinations under the group of 0-odd-5-even will give you 2 or 3 opportunities to match the winning combinations for every 100 attempts that you play the Euromillions game.

As you can see, a combination such as 2-4-6-8-10 offers a very low ratio of success.

In comparison, you will have a better ratio of success when you pick a more balanced odd and even numbers.

Let’s prove that.

There are 690,000 ways you can combine numbers of type 3-odd-2-even. If we calculate the odds, we get:

Odds of 3-odd-2-even = 690,000 / 1,428,760

In simple terms, a 3-odd-2-even combination will give you the opportunity to match the winning numbers 32 to 33 times in every 100 attempts that you play the Euromillions game.

If we compare the two classes of combinations, we can see a big difference:

0-odd-5-even VS 3-odd-2-even

0-odd-5-even 3-odd-2-even
2 to 3 opportunities to match the winning numbers in every 100 draws 32 to 33 opportunities to match the winning numbers in every 100 draws
The worst ratio of success The best ratio of success
The worst choice An intelligent choice

In a random event like the Euromillions game, making an intelligent choice requires mathematical strategy.  We calculate all the possible choices and finally make an intelligent choice.

Remember this: As a EuroMillions player, your objective is to get a better ratio of success to failure. Know all the possible choices and make an intelligent choice.

I explained the details of this mathematical strategy in my article The Lottery and the Winning Formula of Combinatorial Math and Probability Theory.

But to give you a gist of how to make an intelligent choice, let’s dig deeper through these combinatorial patterns below.

Questions or Comments About EuroMillions

Please, I invite you to join the conversation. If you have questions about the EuroMillions game, please let me know.  If you have comments about this article, then leave your comment below. Thank you for reading

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EuroMillions Syndicate Winners

There are several notable EuroMillions syndicate wins throughout the history of the game:

  • A family syndicate from County Dublin claimed the biggest ever lottery prize won in Ireland when they won €175 milion on Tuesday 19th February 2019.
  • On Friday 1st July 2016, a syndicate of Dublin bus drivers won a EuroMillions jackpot worth €23.8 million. Each of the 22 members of the group received just over €1 million and even arrived by bus to pick up their cheques!
  • On Friday 6th November 2009, a syndicate of seven office workers in Merseyside won a whopping £45.5 million when their entry was one of two British tickets that split a jackpot of £91.1 million. Each member received £6.5 million.

Knowing the Best and the Worst Combination Should Help

Getting the right composition will surely give you the best shot possible at winning the EuroMillions.  Of course, you don’t win any money by matching the pattern.  But as a lotto player, you want to play with a sensible strategy and get closer to the winning numbers.

Lotterycodex has no power to change the underlying probability.  But Lotterycodex can calculate all the possible choices so you can make the right choice.

The lottery should be fun.  But at least be sensible when choosing your combinations and don’t waste your money on worthless combinations.

You don’t increase your chance of winning by choosing the right composition.  But when you play the Euromillions, you want to play with the best ratio of success to failure.  So don’t waste your money on useless combinations.  Lotterycodex patterns are here to guide you on that aspect. (Check out the Lotterycodex Calculators)

I encourage you to check the free guide to learn more about how we calculate everything.  Lotterycodex is the only lottery calculator that combines combinatorics and probability calculation in one system.

If you are playing blindly, there’s no guarantee you are not falling into one of these worst patterns in EuroMillions. So I propose that you should incorporate the use of probability theory in your playing strategy.

The benefits are apparent.  First, you are confident that you are not wasting your money, and second, you get the best shot at winning the game.

The difference between the best and the worst is so huge. You don’t want to take it for granted.

We don’t say that those combinations under the worst group will not occur.  We say that those combinations have the worst ratio of success to failure.

Predicting the Outcome of the EuroMillions Draw

You have to understand that probability theory is simply a reliable guide.  Naturally, the expected frequency and the actual frequency will not always match exactly.

You use probability to predict the future outcome of the game to guide you on how to play your game.

For example, if we want to know in advance the outcome of EuroMillions after 2000 draws, we use the same formula for expected frequency:

If we are to predict the outcome of all the odd-even patterns, we will come up with the following prediction table below:

Pattern Probability Estimated Occurrence in 2000 draws
3-odd-2-even 0.3256621797655230 651 times
2-odd-3-even 0.3256621797655230 651 times
4-odd-1-even 0.1492618323925310 299 times
4-even-1-odd 0.1492618323925310 299 times
All-odd 0.0250759878419453 50 times
All-even 0.0250759878419453 50 times

As a smart EuroMillions player, you don’t want to waste your money on patterns with low probability. That is the power of probability calculation as we apply it in EuroMillions.

As a lotto player, you want to win the jackpot. Therefore, you should stick with either 3-odd-2-even or 2-odd-3-even and forget about the rest of the patterns.

You get the same idea when it comes to low-high patterns.  You don’t want to pick a combination whose composition is purely low numbers or strictly high numbers.

However, EuroMillions is not only about low-high or odd-even patterns.

We discuss low-high and odd-even patterns to show that the lottery can be predicted to an extent.  But the low-high and odd-even patterns don’t provide the whole picture of the EuroMillions game.

You must understand the EuroMillions game as a whole if you want to win the game.  For you to achieve that, you have to understand intricate combinatorial patterns, which is the real key to EuroMillions’ success.

Let’s proceed to discuss what advanced patterns can do to level up your lotto playing strategy.

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Остановка предварительной продажи евромиллион из-за covid-19

Испанская лотерея euromillions

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